Enter both sides of a market. We remove the book’s built-in margin (the vig) and show what each side’s price would be if the book took no cut — the fair line to measure any pick against.
The no-vig fair price is the honest coin-flip line hiding underneath the book’s margin. It’s the same first step CapTracker’s model takes before deciding whether a capper’s pick actually beats the market: convert the quoted odds to a probability, strip the vig, and compare. If a pick’s edge disappears once the vig is gone, it was never really an edge.
American odds are anchored to $100. A minus number (−150) is the favorite — it’s how much you stake to win $100. A plus number (+200) is the underdog — how much you win on a $100 stake. Decimal odds show the total return per $1 staked, stake included (1.67 means $1 comes back as $1.67). Fractional odds (common in the UK) show profit over stake as a ratio (2/1 = win $2 per $1).
| American | Decimal | Fractional | Implied Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| −200 | 1.50 | 1/2 | 66.7% |
| −110 | 1.91 | 10/11 | 52.4% |
| +100 | 2.00 | 1/1 | 50.0% |
| +150 | 2.50 | 3/2 | 40.0% |
| +250 | 3.50 | 5/2 | 28.6% |
Implied probability is the win rate the odds are quietly assuming. Convert both sides of a market and add them up: a fair, no-margin market totals 100%. A real one totals more than 100% — that overage is the vig (also called juice or hold), the book’s built-in edge. Two sides at −110 imply 52.4% each = 104.8%, so the vig is about 4.8%. Strip it back to 100% and each fair side sits at 50%. For the deeper walk-through, see how betting odds imply probability and the betting glossary.