EXPECTED VALUE CALCULATOR
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Expected value is what a bet is worth on average if you could place it many times. Enter the price, your stake and your honest win probability.
The maths: EV = (p x profit if it wins) - ((1 - p) x stake), where profit = stake x (decimal odds - 1). Break-even probability = 1 / decimal odds.
FAQ
What does +EV mean in betting?
Positive expected value: at your estimated win probability, the bet makes money on average over many repetitions. It says nothing about any single result.
How do I calculate expected value?
Multiply your win probability by the profit if it wins, then subtract the loss probability multiplied by the stake.
What is break-even probability?
One divided by the decimal odds. Win more often than that and the bet is profitable; less often and it is not.
Built by CAPTRACKER, which tracks public handicappers and settles every pick automatically against the final score. If you are about to follow someone's picks, look up their record first.