Experimental team-strength forecasts, with the evidence behind them.
These estimates use previous NFL game results, home-field advantage and offseason rating regression. They do not include current injuries, starting-quarterback changes or sportsbook prices.
| Matchup | Kickoff (Eastern) | Away win* | Home win* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders | Oct 04, 2026 09:30 AM EDT | IND 49.9% | WAS 50.1% |
| Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants | Oct 04, 2026 01:00 PM EDT | ARI 39.0% | NYG 61.0% |
| Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | Oct 04, 2026 01:00 PM EDT | DAL 35.9% | HOU 64.1% |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Oct 04, 2026 01:00 PM EDT | GB 47.2% | TB 52.8% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | Oct 04, 2026 01:00 PM EDT | JAX 45.0% | CIN 55.0% |
| Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | Oct 04, 2026 01:00 PM EDT | LAR 37.9% | PHI 62.1% |
| New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | Oct 04, 2026 01:00 PM EDT | NE 32.9% | BUF 67.1% |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | Oct 04, 2026 01:00 PM EDT | NYJ 27.9% | CHI 72.1% |
| Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens | Oct 04, 2026 01:00 PM EDT | TEN 22.8% | BAL 77.2% |
| Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | Oct 04, 2026 04:05 PM EDT | MIA 27.5% | MIN 72.5% |
| Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | Oct 04, 2026 04:25 PM EDT | DEN 41.3% | SF 58.7% |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | Oct 04, 2026 04:25 PM EDT | KC 53.2% | LV 46.8% |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | Oct 04, 2026 04:25 PM EDT | LAC 28.0% | SEA 72.0% |
| Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers | Oct 04, 2026 08:20 PM EDT | DET 54.5% | CAR 45.5% |
| Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | Oct 05, 2026 08:15 PM EDT | ATL 44.5% | NO 55.5% |
*Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. Ties are excluded; these are not moneyline, spread or total settlement probabilities.
49 recorded decisive results · 15 awaiting a supported final.
49 decisive games. These are descriptive forecast scores, not evidence of betting profit or an advantage over market prices.
Brier score: 0.2274; frozen home-rate baseline: 0.2391. Log loss: 0.6467; baseline: 0.6713. Lower is better. These descriptive scores are separate from the historical test below.
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks · Kickoff Sep 09, 2026 08:20 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
NE 34.6% · SEA 65.4%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams · Kickoff Sep 10, 2026 08:35 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
SF 47.8% · LAR 52.2%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers · Kickoff Sep 13, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
ATL 35.9% · PIT 64.1%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts · Kickoff Sep 13, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
BAL 46.8% · IND 53.2%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans · Kickoff Sep 13, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
BUF 43.4% · HOU 56.6%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers · Kickoff Sep 13, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
CHI 47.9% · CAR 52.1%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars · Kickoff Sep 13, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
CLE 31.2% · JAX 68.8%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions · Kickoff Sep 13, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
NO 29.3% · DET 70.7%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans · Kickoff Sep 13, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
NYJ 42.3% · TEN 57.7%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals · Kickoff Sep 13, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
TB 42.0% · CIN 58.0%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers · Kickoff Sep 13, 2026 04:25 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
ARI 27.8% · LAC 72.2%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings · Kickoff Sep 13, 2026 04:25 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
GB 38.9% · MIN 61.1%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders · Kickoff Sep 13, 2026 04:25 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
MIA 50.4% · LV 49.6%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles · Kickoff Sep 13, 2026 04:25 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
WAS 29.8% · PHI 70.2%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants · Kickoff Sep 13, 2026 08:20 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
DAL 49.7% · NYG 50.3%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs · Kickoff Sep 14, 2026 08:15 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
DEN 47.2% · KC 52.8%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills · Kickoff Sep 17, 2026 08:15 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
DET 36.6% · BUF 63.4%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
CAR 36.5% · ATL 63.5%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
CIN 34.5% · HOU 65.5%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
CLE 34.9% · TB 65.1%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
GB 52.1% · NYJ 47.9%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
MIN 43.9% · CHI 56.1%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
NO 29.6% · BAL 70.4%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
PHI 64.5% · TEN 35.5%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
PIT 39.7% · NE 60.3%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 04:05 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
JAX 37.5% · DEN 62.5%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 04:05 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
LV 29.7% · LAC 70.3%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 04:25 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
MIA 30.7% · SF 69.3%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 04:25 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
SEA 62.7% · ARI 37.3%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 04:25 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
WAS 39.4% · DAL 60.6%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs · Kickoff Sep 20, 2026 08:20 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
IND 33.8% · KC 66.2%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams · Kickoff Sep 21, 2026 08:15 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
NYG 27.0% · LAR 73.0%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers · Kickoff Sep 24, 2026 08:15 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
ATL 33.3% · GB 66.7%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
CAR 41.5% · CLE 58.5%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
CIN 38.7% · PIT 61.3%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
HOU 49.3% · IND 50.7%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
KC 49.6% · MIA 50.4%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
LAC 29.0% · BUF 71.0%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
New York Jets at Detroit Lions · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
NYJ 25.7% · DET 74.3%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
SEA 60.5% · WAS 39.5%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
TEN 35.1% · NYG 64.9%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 01:00 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
NE 44.2% · JAX 55.8%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 04:05 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
ARI 25.1% · SF 74.9%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 04:05 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
MIN 52.2% · TB 47.8%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 04:25 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
BAL 54.6% · DAL 45.4%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 04:25 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
LV 37.5% · NO 62.5%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos · Kickoff Sep 27, 2026 08:20 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
LAR 39.8% · DEN 60.2%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears · Kickoff Sep 28, 2026 08:15 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
PHI 50.2% · CHI 49.8%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns · Kickoff Oct 01, 2026 08:15 PM EDT
Recorded pregame forecast:
PIT 50.0% · CLE 50.0%.
Win probabilities are conditional on a decisive result. This is the saved estimate from before kickoff; it was not recomputed after the result.
ESPN final score · Observed Oct 02, 2026 10:05 AM EDT
Each team begins with an Elo rating. A completed game moves its rating up or down relative to the result expected before kickoff. A fixed home-field adjustment applies at home venues, with none at neutral venues. Ratings regress toward the league average between seasons.
Current ratings use 7,325 completed regular-season and playoff games through 2026-10-01. Preseason games are excluded. Results are conservatively admitted from noon UTC on the following calendar day. Current-game or future results are never inputs to that game's pregame forecast.
Parameters: {"home_advantage": 65.0, "initial_rating": 1500.0, "k_factor": 20.0, "season_carryover": 0.6666666666666666}. Version: nfl-elo-informational-v1.
569 decisive games, evaluated in chronological order with fixed parameters. Each forecast precedes its result; ratings update only afterward. 1 tied games are excluded from these binary metrics. The baseline uses the home-win rate learned before the test period.
| Metric | Elo v1 | Home-rate baseline |
|---|---|---|
| Brier score (lower is better) | 0.2259 | 0.2497 |
| Log loss (lower is better) | 0.6422 | 0.6927 |
| Accuracy | 61.2% | 54.1% |
Brier score and log loss assess probabilities, rather than only picking a winner. This historical test does not measure betting profit or prove an advantage over bookmaker prices.
The model forecasts team outcomes only. It does not estimate player props, point spreads or totals, and it is not connected to automated wager selection. Forecasts are timestamped snapshots and refresh through the site's existing content publishing schedule.
Game history: nflverse schedule and results data. Upcoming events: ESPN NFL scoreboard. Source snapshot and validation metrics are recorded with each forecast generation.
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